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Sportress of Blogitude

Computer Simulation Has Arizona Cardinals Winning 7 Games…And The NFC West

Say whaaaaaat? Sounds crazy – well, not really – but it be true: according to the fancy-schmancy computer simulation program named “The Predictalator” (it’s like a percolator, except it doesn’t make coffee, it predicts stuff), the Arizona Cardinals are poised to win a whopping seven games this season. But before all of you Cardinals fans out there hang your heads in dejection, would it make any of you feel better to know that according to The Predictalator, those paltry seven wins will be good enough for the NFC West title? Yeah, I thought so.

The Predictalator is the brainchild of Paul Bassire, who holds a master’s degree in quantitative analysis from the University of Cincinnati, and was utilized by the website, PredictionMachine.com, to run 50,000 simulations of the entire 2011 NFL season.

Via azcentral:

His Predictalator is billed as “the most advanced sports-forecasting software available” with the ability to factor in “relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home-field advantage) and weather in each game.”

The Predictalator’s bad news: The Cardinals won an average of 7.2 games in the simulation.

The Predictalator’s good news: That average was best among teams in the NFC West.

In the simulation the Cardinals won the division 36 percent of the time, better than the Rams (26 percent), 49ers (25 percent) and Seahawks (13 percent).

I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised that a technological marvel like The Predictalator would arrive at the conclusion after 50,00 simulations that 7 games would be good enough to win the NFC West. We only need to look back to last season when the Seattle Seahawks won the division with the very same 7-9 record. So rejoice, Cardinals fans, according to The Predictalator, your squad’s forecasted sub-par season will be good enough for the team to get into the playoff and subsequently likely get smacked down by a far superior team.

On the other hand, playoff-qualifying glory aside, the simulations, which no doubt took into account the arrival of perceived franchise savior Kevin Kolb, foresaw that Kolb only netted the team a disappointing two-win improvement over last season. Should that be considered an acceptable exchange for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round draft pick in 2012? I guess we’ll have to wait and see what The Predictalator says about next season. Maybe the Cardinals can crawl over .500 in 2012. Who knows? Well, except for The Predictalator, of course. Stranger things have happened, which I am sure have been simulated by a computer countless times.

Simulation gives Arizona Cardinals 7 wins . . . NFC West title [azcentral]